Friday brought unfavorable data from the US: non-farm employment in July was almost halved to 114,000, manufacturing orders fell by 3.3%, and the unemployment rate increased from 4.1% to 4.3%. These figures were significantly worse than forecasted, indicating a possible onset of a recession in the world’s largest economy.

Financial markets worldwide reacted negatively to the emerging risks. The Japanese Nikkei index was particularly hard hit, also pressured by the first key interest rate hike since 2006, to 0.25%. It fell by 11.1% over the week.

Investor risk aversion did not go unnoticed for BTC either: its weekly drop was 13.2%, the worst since the collapse of the FTX cryptocurrency exchange in November 2022. The decline continued on Monday, with the maximum drawdown from the record high reaching 30%.

Nevertheless, when analyzing Bitcoin’s prospects, additional factors must be considered. Firstly, the market has been pressured in the last two months by the return of 96,000 BTC ($6 billion) to former Mt. Gox clients and the sale of 50,000 BTC ($3 billion) by the German government. Secondly, Bitcoin has always been and remains a highly volatile instrument, and the current correction is still within the normal fluctuations of a growing market. In previous bullish cycles, maximum drawdowns reached 40-60%.

Macroeconomic factors remain favorable: the reduction in supply due to the halving, the recognition of BTC as an investment asset, and the growing number of companies with crypto reserves. It’s also worth noting the likelihood of a Fed rate cut: rising unemployment could prompt the regulator to accelerate monetary policy easing. Currently, the probability of a 0.5% rate cut in September is 78%, up from 30% last week.

The size of the Bitcoin correction is within typical bounds and would have been significantly smaller without the impact of internal factors such as government coin sales. However, the situation could worsen if US spot ETF investors, who have accumulated $17.7 billion, react negatively to the latest news.

If there is no mass exodus from ETFs, the US government does not begin selling its reserve of 204,000 BTC (~$11 billion), and there is no panic in financial markets, Bitcoin could return to growth and reach a new price high by autumn. 

Important: RevenueBot does not provide financial advice; the information is for informational purposes only.

Bitcoin is one of the most lucrative assets over the course of decades. At first worth a few cents, it was able to hack its way to its all-time high of $66,000. It is currently traded at $40,000, but the first-ever crypto is predicted to skyrocket to nearly $100,000 by the end of the 2022. Future expectations for it are undoubtedly optimistic. Nevertheless, many people who are not familiar with the crypto industry still have questions: how safe such a valuable asset is? Crypto skeptics continue to hold that the industry is a bubble which will soon burst and become a fundamental mistake of this very century. So what is the first-ever crypto secured with and is it in danger of full depreciation?

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In May 2021, we wrote an article on the cycles of the crypto market, in which we analyzed various periods in the digital asset market when the value of the main coin changed. Based on this article, we can say that the growth of BTC will continue and there are no factors suggesting otherwise. In this article, we will analyze whether the bitcoin price will reach the $100 000 mark by the end of 2021.

Continue reading “Will Bitcoin be worth $100 000 by the end of 2021?”